February 13, 2002

THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION LAYS OUT THE THREE 'Cs' OF ITS NEW CHINA POLICY

By Tom Plate

And Beijing gets ready for a high-profile event by taking a low profile

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

NEW YORK CITY --- At the World Economic Forum conference that wrapped up last week, the Chinese took few chances and adopted such a low profile, they almost became Davos' invisible men.

Then again, maybe the supine strategy wasn't so remarkable. Historically, they have never been gung-ho about the annual Davos confab, staged this year in Manhattan for the first time. The event is too frank, unguarded and in an ironic sense egalitarian: In the private sessions, anybody can ask anyone almost anything, and people often do -- with no aides permitted to hover in the wings to help participants with their answers. That unnerves the typical Chinese official who loves to be surrounded by cautious, well-informed staffers to protect him from the unexpected.

Another factor is Hong Kong, which of course is now part of China. Hong Kongers really tend to shine at Davos, especially business leaders. They love to hobnob with big shots from the West, thrive on the give-and-take and are anything but shy about speaking out. Beijing's reps can simply sit back and watch Hong Kong go to town.

A third reason for the mainland's low profile is the succession struggle. China is moving to form a new government, and "the jockeying for position in the transition is intense beyond belief," comments Kenneth Courtis, a veteran Davos-goer and a top Asia-based economist. So, for anybody in China who is anybody, he points out, the real action now is in Beijing.

Besides, a high profile for China almost anywhere outside the mainland simply isn't sensible with the coming trip of President George Bush to Beijing later this month. The Chinese are preparing for this meticulously and want to leave nothing to chance.

They have even started to sing a less rancorous tune on the touchy Taiwan issue. China's Vice Premier Qian Qichen, the veteran diplomat well respected internationally, pulled in his hawk-like talons last month and ginned up some pointedly conciliatory remarks regarding Taiwan's ruling party, the Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP historically tilts, in past statements at least, to a policy of formal independence from the mainland. But the cagey Qian said that only an "extremely small number" in the DPP are independence activists and invited those in the "vast majority" to visit China. That's about as warm a trend as you can get in the middle of an arctic Beijing winter.

The government of outgoing President Jiang Zemin is also well aware that relations with Washington are pleasantly warmer, too. Indeed, compared to the scary frost that arose during the EP-3 reconnaissance plane standoff almost a year ago, relations are almost tropical these days.

In America, credit must go particularly to Secretary of State Colin Powell, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly and other level-headed souls in Washington who don't reckon that an artificially revived Cold War with China would be that much fun. Powell was masterful in testimony last week before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in outlining the Bush administration's own engagement policy: "A candid, constructive and cooperative relationship is what we are building with China: candid where we disagree; constructive where we can see some daylight; and cooperative where we have common regional, global or economic interests."

These are the three C's, declaimed Powell, of the newly articulated U.S. policy that Bush will convey to Jiang. If so, Bush has come a long way from the early hours of his administration last year when it seemed to delight shoveling dirt on engagement.

But that was then -- and this is now. Today, the administration's attention is focused on violence-prone Muslim extremists wherever they may be, not on wealth-oriented former practicing Communists who just want to make a buck wherever and however they can.

The Chinese have benefited in their bilateral relationship with the United States from the Sept. 11 tragedy. When CIA Director George Tenet testified before a Senate committee last week, the questions thrown his way were mainly about terrorism. A year before, they were mainly about China. But like Rep. Gary Condit, who has virtually disappeared from the U.S. media radar screen since the attack on the World Trade Center, China is no longer such hot news.

Indeed, America may downsize the so-called China threat once it fully appreciates that the Chinese, unlike extremist terrorists, don't want to destroy capitalism, they just want a piece of the pie. If that ever does dawn on America -- that, for Beijing, it's "the economy, stupid" -- China will have mostly the Taliban to thank.

Previous Columns:

The Canary in the Asian Coal Mine (January 30, 2002)

Crony Capitalism, American Style (January 23, 2002)

The Medium is in the Message (January 16, 2002)

The Importance of Being Optimistic (January 9, 2002)

From World Economic Forum, NYC 2002:

Is America On An Ego Trip? (February 8, 2002)

The Crash of Civilizations, As Heard From Ground Zero (February 7, 2002)

The Taliban of Money Market Capitalism (February 6, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network