February 20, 2002

A MODEST APPRAISAL OF ASIA BY BUSH'S NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR

By Tom Plate

Still hopeful about Koizumi, still skeptical about North Korea, less chilly about China

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

It's nice to see a prominent West Coast American at such a high foreign-policy level in Washington. That's the case with Condoleezza Rice, the former provost of Stanford University. Now, more than one year into the new administration, Bush's national security advisor is anything but just another assembly-line Eastern Establishment insider who'd relegate China and the rest of Asia to a back seat behind Russia and Europe. On the eve of President Bush's timely visit to Asia this weekend, Rice thus offered on-the-record insights into high-level U.S. thinking.

FIRST STOP, TOKYO: Bush officials came into office high on making Japan the Asian counterpart to Britain, but as the reality of Japan's economic problems and political gridlock sunk in, they toned down the happy talk.

Even so, the administration believes Japan's economic impasse has unfortunately overshadowed its impressive contribution to the anti-terror war. "This is an underwritten story," sighed Rice. "Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told the president very early on that Japan would try to be significant -- that it would expand the boundaries of what it would be able to do. The result has been positive implications for security in the region." But is the Japanese contribution of transport and rescue ships at the rear of the action really such a big deal? Yes, she responded: "Remember: the Japanese Defense Forces are the one force among our allies that was always modernizing." Rice doubts that any other Japanese politician besides Koizumi would have so extended himself politically for the U.S. cause.

Although the telegenic prime minister's popularity has shrunk from about 70 to 50 percent, he still gets Rice's vote. But can Koizumi lift Japan out of the recessionary soup? "Consider the way Koizumi came to power, the great extent to which he really does understand the economic and political challenges, and his ability to mobilize the country," she responded, "we should hope for the best." How can Bush help? "The President wants Japan to be a strong partner economically, and he will talk with Koizumi about the joint responsibility of the No. 1 and No. 2 economies in the world. And the president plans to give strong support for reform -- a very strong public affirmation of Japan's need to reform."

SECOND STOP, SOUTH KOREA: The president will do all he can to stay smiley about the patient, pro-talk policy of South Korean President Kim Dae Jung, currently politically embattled at home, toward prickly North Korea. "We support what Kim Dae Jong has been doing," insisted Rice, "which is the policy of peace through strength." But while supporting sunshine, "the
ball is in the North Korean court," she warned.

But wasn't the president's inclusion of North Korea on the now-infamous "axis of evil" list a stretch -- and a big downer for Kim Dae Jung? Not at all, she replied: "All three on that list are particularly bad offenders. What North Korea is doing in the world -- missile sales and so on -- can't be swept under the rug. And this administration is not going to do that. The president always works from a position of moral clarity, and he doesn't see any contradiction between strong support for peace and holding North Korea accountable."

One worries, though, that this tough line stands less of a chance of shaking North Korea's Kim Jong Il from the tree than South Korea's Kim Dae Jung, with whom Bush meets early this week. "We are always prepared to talk. And we believe there is no distance at all between our policy and South Korea's."

LAST STOP, BEIJING: The very fact that the president will spend any time at all in Beijing would seem to indicate serious movement away from the administration's initial chilliness to China. That could be in part as a reward for China's quiet intelligence help in the U.S. war against terrorism in Central Asia. For, if Beijing's contributions have been at all disappointing, as some reports suggest, Rice wasn't saying: "They've been very helpful. We believe they've done everything they can do."

Looking at the glass as half full rather than half empty seems a dramatic change in outlook from a year ago, when the downsizing of China and the inflating of Japan seemed central to the new Asia policy. Not really, said Rice: "Go back to the president's discussions in China about
the EP-3 surveillance plane incident. He indicated then that it was important to the United States to preserve a productive and realistic relationship with China. There are a lot of facets to that complex relationship ... China is undergoing tremendous growth and transition."

That's an understatement, for sure, as she referred to the intense transition struggle now going on in China as current President Jiang Zemin moves to a more behind-the-scenes role. But haven't the Chinese settled the issue of the next leader (technocrat Hu Jintao, with whom Bush is
scheduled to meet)? "Regarding the movement to a new government," said the pointedly precise -- and intellectually modest -- Rice, "I think we are not prepared to think we know what will happen." Somehow her modesty seemed thoroughly -- and appropriately -- sincere.

The following weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

True Crusaders Never Run Out of Moral Gas (February 20, 2002)

The Bush Administration Lays Out the Three 'Cs' of Its New China Policy (February 13, 2002)

The Canary in the Asian Coal Mine (January 30, 2002)

Crony Capitalism, American Style (January 23, 2002)

From World Economic Forum, NYC 2002:

Is America On An Ego Trip? (February 8, 2002)

The Crash of Civilizations, As Heard From Ground Zero (February 7, 2002)

The Taliban of Money Market Capitalism (February 6, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network