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March 20, 2002

DRAWING BACK FROM THE BRINK OF WAR

By Tom Plate

The world's most bristling hair-trigger crisis may well be between India and Pakistan

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network


LOS ANGELES --- Right now the tension between India and Pakistan exceeds even that on the Korean Peninsula, where the atmosphere is always poisonous, or in the Taiwan Straits, where Beijing and Taipei circle warily, endlessly. The nuclear-tipped standoff between New Delhi and Islamabad is rapidly becoming the Asian equivalent of the Middle East crisis. It’s as if all of a sudden, the Subcontinent threatens to become a self-contained axis of evil all on its own.

There is a dangerous imbalance of power in the region: India is far better armed and has many more troops than Pakistan. Both sides are nose-to-nose on their borders, waiting for the slightest provocation.

India is seething over a series of external attacks, including one on its parliament in December; is increasingly unnerved by internal clashes between Hindus and Muslims; and is upset over the perceived duplicity -- or perhaps the diplomatic dexterity -- of Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf, whose quickly renewed alliance with Washington left New Delhi speechless and off-balance.

It’s imperative that the world, especially the United States, pay more attention to this potential nightmare scenario before these traditional enemies go to war. Understandably, the U.S. media pays close attention to the clash of Arab and Jewish civilizations in the Middle East. The two ancient and rival religions fuel the underlying flames of hatred, yet so do they in South Asia, as India (technically secular, but overwhelmingly Hindu) and predominantly Muslim Pakistan vie for control of disputed Kashmir.

Pakistani terrorist operations inside both India and disputed Kashmir have inflamed Indian public opinion. Hindu extremists routinely rattle Pakistan’s cage with provocative, fanatical demonstrations at Muslim holy sites inside India.

To make matters worse, Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Pakistan’s Musharraf would seem to have about as much respect for each other as do Israel’s Ariel Sharon and Palestine Leader Yasser Arafat. In this respect, India is making a serious miscalculation. Musharraf may be no Mahatma Gandhi, but neither is he a General Zia, the ruthless Pakistani dictator who, decades ago, de-secularized the country’s educational system and sowed the seeds of today’s Islamic fundamentalism. Still, many Indians despise Musharraf for past shady alliances with extremist elements of Pakistan’s security forces, who are said to be behind many anti-India terrorist operations.

In reality, Musharraf is India’s potential way out of a spiraling crisis, not its problem, for he is key to the establishment of normalcy on the Subcontinent. Any policy that aims to drive the general from power risks the strong possibility that the incoming government might prove far worse for India.

As an analogy, many people recall the Shah of Iran’s many faults yet would agree that the succeeding revolutionary, hardline government was worse. Pakistan is teeming with extremist groups ready to take over. This is why India should be working with Musharraf, not against him, if it wants to avoid going back to the future.

A wise Indian government would reflect on the rich political heritage of the pacifist Gandhi and the diplomat Jawaharlal Nehru, taking the long-range view that future generations of Indians will suffer greatly from a permanent state of siege, if not perpetual war. Similarly, a truly wise Islamabad would put the question of Kashmir in the freezer for a few years in hopes that it will cool off. For the issue inflames domestic Indian and Pakistani public opinion to such an extent that diplomacy becomes fruitless.

It’s obvious that the present generation of Indian and Pakistani leaders fails to possess the wisdom and/or the will to solve their Kashmir differences. At stake is the possibility of a major war -- even a nuclear war -- in Asia. A few weeks of mutual pounding, say U.S. military-intelligence sources in the region, and the outnumbered Pakistanis would crumble, then face at least partial Indian occupation.

“India-Pakistan is an absolute tinderbox,” says one U.S. military official. “Both sides need to step back, calm down and look for a way out.”

As the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan grinds on, the crisis clearly could prove to be world’s biggest setback to peace and stability in decades. It is past time for Prime Minister Vajpayee, who is also leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party, to rein in his right-wing activists, just as Musharraf has to purge his intelligence services of extremists.

And it is high time that India and Pakistan to pull back, for their leaders to step up to the historic moment before it is too late, and for the West to do whatever it can to help.

This column has appeared in the following papers: Honolulu Advertiser, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times, Korea Times, and Japan Times.

Bio Remarks: Tom Plate is a professor of Policy and Communication Studies at UCLA where he founded the Asia Pacific Media Network. He is a regular columnist for the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International, the South China Morning Post, The Straits Times and the Honolulu Advertiser. He is a member of the World Economic Forum, the Pacific Council on International policy and the author of five books. He has worked at TIME, the Los Angeles Times and the Daily Mail of London.

Previous Columns:

Get Ready for Yet Another China Scare (March 13, 2002)

Terrorism: 1, Hearts and Minds: 0 (March 6, 2002)

Needed: A New U.S. Self-Containment Policy (February 27, 2002)

A Modest Appraisal of Asia by Bush's National Security Advisor (February 20, 2002)

True Crusaders Never Run Out of Moral Gas (February 20, 2002)


(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network