May 1, 2002

THE VIRTUE OF KEEPING MUM ON CHINA-TAIWAN

By Tom Plate

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES --- From Beijing’s perspective, the only acceptable U.S. public statement on Taiwan is no statement at all.

America is such a looming presence in Asia that even a seemingly sensible reiteration of existing policy can sound to Chinese mainland ears -- and perhaps to others’ -- like something between a colonial command and an imperialistic invasion. So when careful-spoken Admiral Dennis Blair, head of the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii, had the temerity to raise a red flag about China’s growing deployment of short-range missiles along its side of the Taiwan straits, it was nothing new. The Taiwan Relations Act, passed by Congress decades ago, commits the United States to help Taiwan maintain its self-defense capability.

That’s the only point Blair was trying to make. It’s true, he said in the speech at the Asia Society, Hong Kong Center, that these new missiles cannot yet tip the balance of power, but “if they continue to increase in number and accuracy, there will come a time when they threaten the sufficient defense of Taiwan.” Then, suggested the admiral, Taiwan might need a lifesaving raft of U.S. defensive missiles to keep it from sinking.

Fair enough -- viewed objectively. But let’s look it the way people who live on both sides of the Taiwan straits might.

For starters, points out Lien Chan, chairman of the opposition Kuomintang Party in Taiwan, statements like Blair’s both help and hurt. Helpfully, they reduce Taiwan’s sense of international isolation; but, far less usefully, over time they could embolden a Taipei government to overestimate the extent to which the United States would support Taiwan. Suppose the offshore island of 22 million, now governed by the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party, were to lean toward a formal, irrevocable declaration of permanent separation from the mainland? Such a provocation -- at odds with wiser official U.S. policy -- could anger Beijing into launching a devastating preemptive war. Would not history then judge those well-intentioned public expressions of support by U.S. leaders -- even ones as carefully hewn as Blair’s -- as having eroded Taiwan security? Beijing has been consistent on the Taiwan independence issue: There would be war.

In fact, mainland hawks soar into happy flights of fancy whenever the United States pokes its nose into others’ business (a complaint, by the way, voiced by many other nations). One factor that cannot be overstated: the desire of some Chinese circles to exploit roiling anti-American nationalism on the mainland.

Blair didn’t intend to do that, of course; and, in all fairness, even Beijing should admit that the U.S. Pacific Command in Hawaii, especially under Blair and his equally thoughtful predecessor Joe Prueher (who wound up as Clinton’s ambassador to China), has not been irresponsible in its statements.

But it’s not that Blair really said anything dangerous -- it’s that, from the mainland perspective, he said anything at all. It is hoped President George W. Bush, when he sat down this weekend in the Oval Office with Chinese Vice President and up-and-comer Hu Jintao, listened carefully -- and not just with deeply committed anti-Communist ears. The Chinese bottom-line goal today is not conquest but cash. They don’t want to invade Taiwan; they just want to add it, without triggering World War III, to their portfolio. China’s leaders are shooting for some kind of cross-straits political and economic mutual fund, as it were.

The Chinese media have been de-emphasizing growing tension and emphasizing economic ties. So have the Taiwanese. The current Chen Shui-bian government has given cross-strait investment new encouragement. Do current trends have the smell of war? No -- unless one obsesses over the missile buildup. For international perspective, compare the level of today’s cross-straits tensions to the feral ferocity of the Middle East. Right, there’s no comparison.

And there may never be. In fact, listen carefully to almost any (though, sadly, not all) top-level Taiwan government officials (as I did recently in Los Angeles, during a quickly arranged, off-the-record session), and what you hear, far more often than not, is not the ranting of raging bulls but the quiet sense that China-Taiwan is no Arab-Israeli imbroglio: After all, on both sides of the waters, they are all Chinese.

Yes, the Taiwanese want all the U.S. military equipment they can get. But, in private at least, they do not greatly take issue with the Beijing view that straits waters would probably stay calmer if only “the foreigners” were to stay away, keep their peace and, most of all, their silence -- even when they mean well.

Previous Columns:

The Power of Saying 'No' or Doing Absolutely Nothing (April 24, 2002)

American Culture: When the Stars Come Out to Shine -- Or Plea Bargain (April 22, 2002)

Odd Couples and Bad Practices (April 17, 2002)

How to Solve the Middle East Crisis (April 15, 2002)

Asia's Press is Getting Better -- But is it Improving Fast Enough? (April 10, 2002)

Women Who Come and Go May Almost Be as Smart as Michelangelo (April 3, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network