July 10, 2002

FROM YELLOW CARDS TO THE YELLOW SEA: SUNSHINE POLICY GETS WOUNDED AGAIN

By Tom Plate

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES --- The recent fierce 21-minute naval gun battle between the two Koreas was unfortunate and tragic for several reasons -- and not just the loss of lives on both sides. The deadly duel splashed cold water on South Korea’s sudden place in the sun. Its soccer team had just completed its surprisingly successful 2002 World Cup run, and, despite ominous predictions of temperamental clashes between Seoul and Tokyo -- not usually the closest of pals -- the two countries’ management of the games had proved exemplary.

No one knows for sure whether the clash was motivated by a food-hungry North Korea in dire need of greater access to fishing waters, or its jealousy of the South’s World Cup success, or by elements of the South Korean military eager to punch out the North’s lights. But it would seem that only a loser Stalinist regime like Pyongyang would want to spoil the Cup afterglow. What’s sadder is the propensity to use the incident to undercut President Kim Dae Jung’s “sunshine” policy of aggressive diplomatic engagement with North Korea.

The argument is that “DJ” (as he is often called) is naive, soft on communism and beating a dead policy horse. The naval clash thus handed a golden opportunity to both political opponents of Kim Dae Jung’s Millennium Democratic Party, facing a December nationwide election that looks increasingly desperate, and policy wonks and media critics in Seoul as well as Washington who harbor deep doubts about the president’s policy.

Their sincerity is not in question -- just their logic. The fact of the matter is that the naval gun duel is not an argument for burying sunshine at sea; on the contrary, it’s an argument for future South Korean governments to stick to their diplomatic guns and stay the sunshine course. Kim Dae Jung is at most guilty of miscalculation regarding Pyongyang, not of any childish naivete about the crude nature of that regime. At 77, he wasn’t born yesterday, and he feels as emotional about the misery of the people in the North and as angry about Pyongyang’s craven incompetence as anyone. Moreover, he is no peacenik: He fully backs the ongoing presence of the 37,000-strong U.S. military commitment, there to deter aggression hand-in-hand with the South Korean armed forces, a far more competent corps than is generally appreciated.

To be sure, DJ probably placed too many Blue House chips on his gut instinct that the North was more deeply a Korean culture than a Communist one. After all, Korea in one way or another has been around for more than 4,000 years (the Communists for far less than that, thankfully). The gamble of his historic trip North two years ago was that even the stubborn Communists in power would realize they had more of a future betting on their mutual Korean-ness than on their failed communism. But if Kim erred, why hang the man in effigy?

Although commendably avoiding any “I-told-you-so” crowing about the alleged North Korean aggression, the Bush administration used the occasion to announce it was withdrawing its standing offer to negotiate with the so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Initially appalled by the very supposition of sunshine -- trying to make nice with those Communists -- Bush’s top foreign-policy officials (experienced and professional) had been gravitating toward a more neutral, less overtly judgmental position about Kim Dae Jung. They may not love sunshine, but, hey, what’s the alternative? A thunder-and-lightning policy? With so much in U.S. expenditures and administrative self-esteem committed to the war on terror, they could hardly wish for big trouble on the Korean peninsula. The United States really doesn’t want to up the ante: Warmongering could prove very costly.

When the clash erupted, DJ, as fate would have it, was in Tokyo, where he caught Japan’s otherwise besieged Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in a good mood. The veteran Liberal Democratic Party figure generally leans markedly rightward on defense and military matters. But he complimented the visiting South Korean Nobel Peace prize winner on his Northern policy and expressed a public wish to deepen bilateral ties in the afterglow of the two countries’ success in working as a team in running the World Cup.

DJ thanked Koizumi for “cool-headedly” staying the sunshine course. If Japan and South Korea could only work together so well and crack the feral North Korean puzzle, Koizumi might find himself next in line for a Nobel Peace prize. For that, even Koreans might cheer -- especially Kim.

Previous Columns:

Why Papa Shouldn't Preach (July 3, 2002)

A Proud Leader Nearing the End of His Time (June 26, 2002)

The Cup Runneth Over (June 19, 2002)

Metamorphosizing Out of A Cocoon (June 12, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network