October 23, 2002

TEX-MEX DIPLOMACY: THE COMING SHOW OF POLITICAL SHOWS

By Tom Plate

This time, though, the APEC summit in Mexico won't just be for mere show

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES --- It looks as if almost all the usual diplomatic suspects are planning to be there. And for once this is a good thing -- there's a lot to talk about, a lot to figure out and much at stake. If all the big shots in Cabo San Lucas play their cards right, in addition to posing sweetly for the hordes of stalking paparazzi at the annual APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) summit this week (Oct. 20-28), this time held in Mexico, maybe fewer innocent people will die from terrorism in the coming months. Wouldn't that be nice?

For too many have died so far. Just ask Megawati Sukarnoputri, the president of Indonesia, tragic ground-zero of the Bali carnage. Not her fault, of course, but her colleagues at APEC will tell her to drop that overly composed turn-the-other-cheek approach to home-grown terrorist groups, assume some Margaret Thatcher-style attitude and go after them. She could learn from nearby Singapore, which takes the old-fashioned view that it is the early bird who so often gets the worm -- in this case, terrorist worms. The Goh Chok Tong government cuffed up terror groups earlier this year before they got out of hand. Goh not only worries about his own Singapore population: 4.4 million) but also the unraveling of neighbor Indonesia (231 million), with Allah-only-knows-how-many terrorists.

From the Philippines, where terrorist groups have been feeling the heat of joint operations of government troops with so-called American "advisors", comes Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. While she may look like a magazine-cover model, her tough-as-nails anti-terror stance has been working -- and somehow has spared her nation from prominence on the Al Qaeda get-even hit list, an unwanted honor roll that Australia has been climbing like a rocket ever since well-meaning but blunt-calibrating Prime Minister John Howard foolishly declaimed a sort of ethnic-solidarity pact with his Anglo-Saxon allies in Washington and London. That virtually challenged the manhood of the Islamic terrorists -- and, unfortunately, they were up to it, resulting in the tragic death of scores of young innocent white Australians and British vacationers. Hey, let's deep-six the us-versus-them, whites-versus-non-white rhetoric, okay?

From New Zealand, so close to Australia and yet so far (to date) removed from the violence, comes Prime Minister Helen Clark. The Aussies ought to be doing more with the Kiwis. It's time to bury old rivalries to face the common enemy. Clark is sharp. Figure out an important role for her.

Flying in from near one of the Big Three "axis of evil" centers is none other than tired but indefatigable Kim Dae Jung. What a roller-coaster story his presidency has been! Now the South Korean president has had his bell rung by North Korea's public admission of an ongoing nuclear weapons program (which almost everyone privately suspected). Fortunately for his capital city of Seoul, so close to North Korea's (presumably functional) multiple artillery batteries, President George W. Bush Jr. is too bogged down engineering international approval of an Iraq offensive to launch one preemptively against North Korea.

But -- and this may be hard to believe -- Iraq may be put quietly on the U.S. back burner by the time China's President Jiang Zemin is seen munching steerburgers with Bush at the ranch in Crawford (population: 705 - none of them terrorists!). This monster photo-op (can't wait to see Jiang in a cowboy hat!) is to occur during the APEC summit and could ease Sino-U.S. tension over the Iraq issue. For The Tex-Mex consensus may be go-fast on anti-terrorism but go-slow on Baghdad. That would also please APEC-summiteer President Vladimir Putin. The Russian fox has been trying to get North Korea to pull the plug on the mass-destruction weapons programs, as per Washington's view, but like Jiang is not gung-ho about attacking Iraq.

It's almost possible to feel sorry for Bush, whose political and diplomatic axis detector is creaking under all the evil we are seeing -- from Bali to Pyongyang. After the Indonesian bombings, the Pyongyang confession, the diplomatic turmoil at the United Nations over Iraq and the continuing carnage in the Middle East, Bush's foreign policy would seem to be at a crisis point. Imagine if he attacks Iraq and then North Korea were to go South -- he'd look like the greatest political fool of our time. Or second greatest: For if Congress continues to deny Indonesia's military significant aid on the ground of possible human-rights violations by the TNI forces, and the world's fourth-most-populated country falls apart (as Singapore's authorities repeatedly warn Washington is possible), the world will have an Asian Yugoslavia on his hand -- one that may make the former Yugoslavia (with a population of but 10 million) look like a geopolitical picnic.

It's getting to be crunch time now. So it's time for (a) everyone to try to support the U.S. president more than ever but only if (b) Bush finally starts to listen to others more than ever. This Texan needs to be at his best in Mexico this week as the world tries to figure out how to contain its worst nightmares.

The following weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

Choppy Seas Ahead For The Good Ship Global Economy (October 16, 2002)

Looking For A Handle On The Iraq Question (October 9, 2002)

Germany Rushes In Where China Fears To Tread (October 2, 2002)

The War Of Unintended Consequences? (September 25, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network