December 31, 2002

STUNNING VICTORY FOR KOREAN REFORM CANDIDATE

By Tom Plate

U.S. can make president-elect Roh friend or foe

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES -- The loud cheering, happy backslapping and bright smiling in the groceries, pubs, restaurants and nightclubs of the booming section of downtown Los Angeles dubbed Koreatown wouldn't stop. One might have thought it was the World Cup all over again! Instead, it was an event of even more significance: the stunning victory of the South Korean reform candidate in that country's third-ever presidential election.

Young Americans of Korean ancestry, up and down the West Coast, had been rooting heartily for Roh Moo Hyun, only 56. The former human rights lawyer supports what they care about: containment of the pernicious, power-hungry conglomerates known as chaebols; persistent and imaginative diplomacy with fearsome North Korea, where many older relatives still reside; a degree of distance from the United States and its imperious attitude toward Seoul.

Sure, those are not the attitudes of every one of the 300,000 Koreans in California, or tens of thousands elsewhere up and down the West Coast. But Roh should prove the best Blue House voice to date of the under-40 Korean generation.

This is one reason why the current president of the United States must swallow hard and offer Roh a gusty handshake. Moreover, this dynamic politician -- of the same political party as outgoing President Kim Dae Jung -- was also the favorite of Korea's neighbors, from Moscow to Tokyo, from Pyongyang to Beijing.

Specifically, Roh has vowed to continue the policies of reconciliation with Communist North Korea and pursue continued internal economic reforms within South Korea, now the third largest economy in Asia -- and on the top 10 list worldwide.

Roh was scarcely the favorite of the Bush administration, at odds with Kim's "sunshine policy" of northern diplomacy and probably uncomfortable with the union support that pushed Roh over the top by a half-million votes. Though this was a scant 2.3 percent margin, it was a higher margin than Kim's win in 1997 -- and far greater than George Bush's over Al Gore.

Roh, who has never visited the United States, won his election outright. The lack of controversy over the final result -- no endless counting of ballots or looking for "chads" -- should not mask the fact that South Korea remains a deeply divided polity. Entrenched interests who oppose further economic reforms and opponents of treating North Korea with anything other than the back of the hand nearly handed Roh's opponent the election. Worse yet, Roh's political party owns but 102 seats in the 272-seat legislature.

To govern properly, then, the president-elect will need the support of all the Korean people and a legislature that puts country and principle over petty politics and degrading regionalism. And he needs true-friend support from the White House, even though he was not the administration's choice.

It's true that in his victory press conference, Roh called for more equality in the Seoul-Washington partnership, but at the same time he insisted that bilateral relations would not change fundamentally. Bush officials -- who openly catered to the losing side -- now should start fresh with the new Seoul administration. They should arrange for President Bush to meet with Roh to establish a dialogue of equals and work hard with this committed man to deepen peace and stability in the Korean peninsula.

That, after all, is the goal of everyone who lives in the region. Russia would welcome a northern as well as southern trading partner on its border (the economy in the south is booming but the north is on life-support). China would be thrilled not to have to feed, house and clothe so many North Korean refugees and sustain Pyongyang with grants and aid -- year after year. A de-tensioned peninsula would reap plaudits from Japan, which, under the diplomatically daring Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has been boldly evolving a Japanese-style "sunshine policy" toward the north (like Seoul, Tokyo could find itself the potential target of North Korean missiles, some nuclear).

Washington should stop grumbling fast. Sure, Washington's bad-cop glowering at the North could work, but only if South Korea plays the good cop. Confusion arises, especially in Seoul, when Washington acts as if it's angry at both Koreas! If it fails to accept Roh for what he is (a younger version of outgoing Kim Dae Jung), or Roh plays the anti-American card once too often, Washington may be diplomatically isolated in East Asia, despite its 100,000 troop garrisons in Japan and Korea, and Roh may have lost South Korea's biggest and best friend.

The following weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

Needed: A World Passion For Tolerance (December 24, 2002)

Historic Election In South Korea (December 17, 2002)

Some Dare Call It Treason (December 10, 2002)

Analyze This: Why Is Japan Such A Basket Case? (December 3, 2002)

(C) 2002 Asia Pacific Media Network