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LOS ANGELES --- What's the country with the largest population that
probably the fewest number of Americans have ever heard of?
It's Indonesia
-- an awesome archipelago of maybe 13,000 islands and some 220 million
people. Most of them are moderate Muslims, and there are more of
those in Indonesia than anywhere.
Its leader is
Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Sukarno, founder of modern
post-colonial Indonesia. She may not be the second coming of Margaret
Thatcher in the steel-nerves department, but she's no dishrag diplomat
when it comes to quashing terrorism and separatism. She has ordered
her military -- known as the TNI -- to contain rebel forces in Aceh,
the resource-rich westernmost province which is now, by her decree,
under martial law.
The line in
the sand has been drawn: Aceh will not become independent like East
Timor because, if it does, she and many others believe, Indonesia
will violently shatter as one aggrieved province after another disintegrates,
in the manner of the former Yugoslavia.
Too bad the
United States cannot help the mild-mannered Megawati, a democrat,
as it once propped up the autocratic and corrupt Suharto, her father's
successor. But the Bush administration is encumbered by a well-intentioned
but ill-conceived Leahy-Feingold congressional amendment that limits
U.S. military aid to the TNI. This bodes to become a dagger in the
heart of the budding Indonesia democracy.
For at the very
time the embattled Megawati, democratically chosen, could well use
the well-trained American military -- so evident in Iraq -- in her
backyard to modernize and democratize her military, Congress forbids
it. The hard-to-follow logic is that because the TNI did so many
bad things under the past dictatorship that was greatly supported
by U.S. military aid, now that Indonesia is becoming a moderate-Muslim
democracy, the United States should therefore do relatively nothing
for Megawati.
This is American
do-good-ism at its nightmarish worst. The Western human rights groups
that have cowed Congress into this madness will have mainly themselves
to blame if Megawati falls and Indonesia reverts to military rule.
President George
Bush knows the deal. Indeed, his administration figured out the
strategic vitality of Asia more quickly than its Clinton predecessors.
Take only the
Iraq reconstruction mess (if one could) and the small-potatoes tax
cut (as one should) out of the Beltway picture, and lately it has
been practically all-Asia, all-the-time at the White House. Two
weeks ago the fresh-faced new South Korean president blew in for
a public fence-mending trip that Roh Moo Hyun and Bush handled well.
Last week the glamorous and articulate Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal Arroyo huddled with our Commander-in-Chief and returned
home bearing U.S. contracts, official expressions of support for
her war on terrorism and a big smile. Bush likes her -- why not?
Like Mega, she's against terrorism and she's smart.
This week (May
23-34), it was the Japanese president's turn, with a bonus barbecue
at the Crawford ranch thrown in. Now there's a rumor Bush may pop
over to John Howard's Australia for the world rugby championship
in October, stopping along the way in Manila to see Gloria. If he
does, Bush should also stop over in Jakarta and see Mega. She is
no obnoxious Chirac taunting the American tiger but a potential
moderate-Muslim ally in a region two key American allies call home:
Australia and Singapore.
Her Indonesia
is positioned to become a successful democratic gem more rapidly
than, say, Iraq. Its economy appears to be back on track. Its rupiah,
once like the Thai baht a SARS-like currency, is now buoyant against
the sagging dollar. Its stock market has gained 25 percent in value
over the past two months. And, politically, Megawati has benefited
not only from revulsion among moderate Muslims against the Bali
massacre and other terrorist violence but from her opposition to
the invasion of Iraq as well.
Alas, her Indonesia
suffers from the indifference of the American public not only because
it is far away and, for the time being, has no U.S. troops being
shot at, but also because it has but the tiniest diaspora stateside.
Contrast that in America there are about 800,000 ethnic Japanese,
more than a million Koreans, almost 2 million Filipinos and countless
Chinese. The number of Indonesians in the United States: barely
40,000.
But note this:
An aide to a leading military official in the Asia-Pacific has only
one map on his wall. Mammoth China or strategically vital Japan
or the troubled Korean peninsula? No, it's of Indonesia. The officer
points to the westernmost point and has you imagine Seattle, Wash.
He goes easternmost and imagines Portland, Me. "But it doesn't
go as deep as Texas does in the United States," he admits.
Even so, he is pretty confident his Commander-in-Chief will locate
Indonesia on his own geopolitical map very soon.
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