July 14, 2003

IS CHINA’S NEW MAN UP TO THE JOB?

By Tom Plate

Look for clues in what he does in Hong Kong and Burma

© 2003 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES -- Two of Asia’s most prominent leaders are in a tough spot now. The only way out for them may be through Beijing. But China hates to get involved in anything that doesn't jack up the economy.

It took the West years to lure China into the North Korean diplomatic stew. But this time Beijing will find it hard to avoid the boiling Hong Kong crisis or the political psychodrama in Myanmar, formerly Burma.

For starters, Hong Kong is turning into a major mess for the new Hu Jintao government. Since 1997, China’s man there has been Tung Chee Hwa, an exceptionally nice guy and a true Hong Kong patriot. He replaced the previous British boss, who was neither. But whereas the Brit was slicker than a TV pitchman, Tung gets tongue-tied at the drop of a tough question. He’s now in a bind over a proposed internal-security law (that’s probably more symbolically chilling than seriously draconian) that Beijing wants passed but the populace doesn't want at all.

For days, Hong Kong’s crowded streets were swollen with protesters -- beginning to resemble a Hong Kong version of Tiananmen Square. So Tung blinked and pulled the proposed law off the table, for the time being at least.

Right move -- but it quickly put Tung between the rock of a smoldering Hong Kong and the hard place of Beijing seeing red over Tung’s 11th-hour capitulation.

Let’s give Tung a break, OK? It’s depressing to see this conservative businessman torn to pieces by the jackals of the left in Hong Kong and the tough hyenas of the right in China. President Hu should intervene by asserting that Tung’s decision to table the new law is final. That would honor the late Chinese reform leader Deng Xiaoping, who sculpted the innovative principle of one country, two systems. But will Beijing stick to that principle, to which it has given so much lip service since 1997, on a big issue? Who’s really Hu? Stay tuned.

For Burma, however, Beijing should abandon a principle ­ its proclaimed policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states -- and work closely with the West.

The widely admired Aung San Suu Kyi is under house arrest yet again. Back on May 30, Burma witnessed another downward spiral: Thugs, backed by hardliners in the government, attacked her motorcade, killed or beat many supporters and jailed Suu Kyi.

But when world protests erupted, she was shuttled off to a more genteel house arrest. The West knows exactly where she is and might be able to extract her with commandos. But Suu Kyi, winner of a Nobel peace prize for her democracy efforts, doesn’t want to be rescued by Western cowboys and is tougher (though much nicer) than Saddam. She wants to stay put until the fascist central government understands that the military is merely one part of a national government of reconciliation, not the whole deal.

Says British Minister of State Mike O’Brien, speaking in an exclusive interview from London: ‘‘She is an inspiration not only to the Burmese people but to people around the world. She has enormous courage and integrity.’’ He added, ‘‘She’s so committed to a peaceful approach that you are inevitably reminded of the reconciliatory spirit of Nelson Mandela, for all those decades in prison.’’ Suu Kyi won election in 1990 but the junta never let her take office.

O’Brien has been working with Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Richard Armitage and officials of other governments to protect her and move Burma toward democracy. While the British government of Tony Blair is to be commended for sticking out its neck to save Suu Kyi’s, London knows it cannot do it alone. It needs more help from Washington, which is bogged down in Iraq, and more pressure from the hapless regional organization known as ASEAN, which has begun to turn up the heat. ‘‘The truth is, the Burmese government is undermining the reputation of Southeast Asia,’’ the minister points out.

It could also use Chinese intervention. ‘‘The Chinese have historically been protective of Burma,’’ the British minister explains. ‘‘But now they’re getting ticked off.’’

China’s continuing economic development depends on regional stability in all of Asia, and Beijing knows it: ‘‘We would hope that the Chinese, who recently have shown some leadership on the North Korean problem, will show some more leadership in the region -- and now with Burma. I hope they exercise all the influence they possess.’’

A prudent China would do as little as possible in Hong Kong by supporting embattled Tung and as much as possible in Burma by helping the incarcerated Suu Kyi, the country’s rightful leader. The world will soon see if new China boss Hu Jintao is up to these challenges.

The above weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

Pakistan: America's Muslim Weathervane? (July 7, 2003)

Why Not Invade China? (June 30, 2003)

An Asian Watcher Likes What He Sees (June 23, 2003)

Grabbing an Indian Tiger by the Tail (June 16, 2003)

© 2003 Tom Plate/ Asia Pacific Media Network