Changing trajectories

Changing trajectories

The United States should consider drawing closer, not further, to North Korea in order to alter that country's orbit, writes Tom Plate

By Tom Plate
Pacific Perspectives Columnist

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Los Angeles --- On the question of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (D.P.R.K.), better known as (a) North Korea, (b) notorious charter member of George W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" and (c) pain-in-the-neck threat to world peace and stability, here are a few humble observations (basically, no one really knows what to do about North Korea, including China).

First, you do NOT need to scramble to the telephone to get the local contractor to sink that bomb shelter into your backyard -- not just yet, anyway. In its current state evolution (only partially post-dinosaur), North Korea is still far from being a serious world-threatening nuclear power.

It is true that the trend lines are ominous: in recent days this much unloved regime test-fired a few missiles and looks to have detonated yet another underground nuclear explosion of unclear size and uncertain sophistication. Even so, this all amounts to a mean flurry of activity from a regime claiming the adherence of some 23 million residents -- almost every last one being ethnic Korean, and too many being mainly hungry.

Two, you would think that China, the originator of the Six Party (Nuclear Disarmament) Talks that started up in 2003, would be embarrassed by the latest morose turn of events. But China, North Korea's long-time ally, is not totally hapless. All along, it has said that the D.P.R.K. is such an enfant terrible that even the great People's Republic of China, in all its looming majesty, cannot really control it. And its greatest fear is not of its missiles but its potentially massive migrant population. Given its common border with the D.P.R.K., China is more opposed to N.K. instability than whatever the regime's nature.

Three, from the United Nations and elsewhere, you will hear calls for further isolation of the North in retaliation for its geopolitical juvenile delinquency. When you hear such, take a deep meditative breath and down a cup of strong green tea (or, perhaps, high-quality soju). North Korea comprises the top half of a peninsula that has long behaved an island unto itself. Calls from the West to isolate it further are like asking to further isolate Pluto from Uranus. What would be the point? Besides, isolation as policy doesn't work if what you want is regime amelioration, not to mention change.

Four, if it is outright regime change that you prefer, consider trying something different. Consider aggressive, near-reckless engagement. What do you have to lose? That the North Koreans will be emboldened to launch missile and nuclear tests? Heck, they've already been doing that. Better to act Obama (the bold, campaigning Barack, not the waffling presidential one) and run circles around the North Koreans with an embarrassment of recognition and riches. Drop the embargo, establish a U.S. embassy in Pyongyang (we have no official representation there now -- can you believe it?), fatten the regime up with aid, accumulate leverage, change the behavior, and establish regional peace.

Five, we don't do that and we probably get a destabilizing regional arms race -- amid a trigger-happy Tokyo. For it is hard to believe that the Japanese will sit tight with Pyongyang on a missile-test spree. For Japan, North Korea, in the midst of a leadership succession, is far more the enemy than China and, in case we haven't noticed, the politics in Tokyo these days is volatile. The government is unstable and the opposition under reorganization. So Pyongyang is to Tokyo what Tehran is to Tel Aviv: a constant temptation to launch a pre-emptive strike.

Six, and finally, consider the peninsula's economic gem: South Korea. Politically it's a mess; just the other day its former president -- a popular populist -- jumped off a mountain to his death, and the current, conservative one keeps tripping down in the polls. But in June, President Obama is to meet with President Lee Myung-bak at the White House. This is where the administration, which has tried to back-burner the Korean problem, needs to get a grip and realize that trying to do more blustery Bush stuff -- more isolation and threat -- didn't work over the last eight years, won't work now and won't work ever.

Diplomatic recognition does not mean a nation's seal of approval. Washington conducts daily civilized diplomatic relations even with regimes that are anti-democratic, anti-women and coddling of extremists (e.g., Saudi Arabia). So we hold our nose as we go about our diplomatic duties. But in North Korea, Swiss diplomats now conduct America's business. This is a Kafka-esque absurdity. You propose to change North Korea by treating it like Pluto? Go ahead and try it if you like. But Pluto's not going to alter its orbit without a very large mass closing in on it steadily and carefully. The United States needs to get closer to Pluto fast. It is that simple.

The views expressed above are those of the author and are not necessarily those of AsiaMedia or the UCLA Asia Institute.

Date Posted: 5/26/2009