April 21, 2003

WHY WAR IN KOREA IS LESS PROBABLE NOW

By Tom Plate

Beijing (finally) takes a stand, North Korea (finally) makes a concession -- and now (finally) Washington looks to give peace a chance

© 2003 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES -- Many fretful observers, on both sides of the Pacific, are convinced that U.S. military action against North Korea is inevitable. But this gloomy doomsday scenario, it seems to me, becomes increasingly improbable as time goes on.

The gloom originates on the Korean peninsula, engulfing a paranoid Pyongyang and a shaken Seoul, spreads eastward, receiving a recharge of fright in Beijing and Tokyo, and wafts ominously over America's West Coast, otherwise a happy home to the world's largest Korean diaspora.

The fear here in America is that once Washington finishes in Iraq, then perhaps punches Syria's lights out, washes up and catches its breath (for next year's presidential election), get ready: The Democratic People's Republic of Korea -- which is neither democratic nor a republic nor run by the people -- is next on the Bush hit list.

Why won't that happen?

For starters, the South Koreans have to understand that while the Bushies may be militarists, they are not remotely stupid. The impressive Iraq triumph should put even slow-to-get-it Democrats on notice. Like their intellectual godfather Ronald Reagan, who once "bravely" ordered the U.S. military to invade Grenada, the Bushies are not looking for fights that might have unhappy endings. Militarily, North Korea is no puny Iraq; what's more, contiguous South Korea is far more important to America than anything directly bordering Iraq. If they could take out the DPRK without collaterally damaging South Korea, they would in an instant. But they cannot: A thriving democracy and economy, South Korea is an Asian jewel that won't be sacrificed on any neo-con ideological altar.

Second, the Japanese have to understand that the triumphant elite Republican Guard -- the one in Washington -- came to office in 2001 hoping to improve relations with Tokyo, not destroy them. In their genomes, they do not trust the Chinese (even still) and are more comfortable working closely with a country America has already defeated on the battlefield. They tend to appreciate Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who deftly pledged Japanese support for the Iraq invasion (against overwhelming domestic opinion) well before the military triumph was anything close to a fact. They know Koizumi's government is in no position to cope with either an Asian arms race or a regional military conflict. They -- as well as all Koreans -- know the region is far better off with someone reasonable like Koizumi in power than a successor like Shintaro Ishihara. Recently reelected overwhelmingly as Tokyo's governor, the outspoken nationalist speaks of North Korea in terms of "revenge." This guy, a Japanese reincarnation of Ross Perot, is a joke that's not funny.

Third, the Chinese, trying to lay low for as long as the world will permit so as to reconstruct their society after so much neglect, have come to understand they cannot, as much as they would like to, duck the North Korean issue any longer. Having subsidized Pyongyang for a decade and more, the Chinese are as fed up as anyone with the North Koreans, especially as Beijing's comfort level with the South Koreans (and vice versa) grows daily. In the final analysis, the new government of Hu Jintao will not allow North Korea's psychopaths to ruin their future by igniting a second Korean war. That's why it agreed earlier this week to have Beijing not only host talks between North Korea and the United States but to participate as a fully responsible partner. The Hu Jintao government deserves credit for junking its bankrupt and misleading we-have-no-influence-over-them stance.

And all of this brings us to the North Koreans themselves. Notice how suddenly it is all action. China is pitching in, Japan issues another sincere plea for diplomacy -- and even Pyongyang flutters skyward the dovish idea that it will negotiate with Washington in any format, as long as its need for a non-aggression promise is tendered. Though that attitude could change tomorrow, resurface the week after and be withdrawn in May -- that's the crazy way it works -- ultimately, there is no way out for Pyongyang but negotiation. Launching an attack south of the DMZ against fellow Korean compatriots, capitalist though they are, makes no sense. Pyongyang will bend to the democratic winds of history as long as the current government feels it has a windshield.

That's the non-aggression promise it wants from Washington. The savvy political advisor in Pyongyang would politely suggest to Kim Jong Il and his elite Communist Guard that they listen more carefully to what U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly says in Beijing than Saddam Hussein did to Secretary of State Colin Powell at the United Nations. If they do, there won't be a Korean apocalypse. Precisely because all parties have come to suspect that Washington's Elite Republican Guard is prepared to go to war anywhere, any time, they're more than eager to give peace a chance.

The above weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

China: A Nation Behaving Badly (April 14, 2003)

What Does it Mean to be a Friend of the United States? (April 7, 2003)

Islamic Bomb of Worldwide Anti-U.S. Hatred? (March 31, 2003)

Standing Up Against Iraq in Asia (March 24, 2003)

© 2003 Asia Pacific Media Network