June 2, 2003

THE GREAT ASIAN REDEPLOYMENT

By Tom Plate

Bush administration's plans to rattle the region

© 2003 Asia Pacific Media Network

LOS ANGELES -- You're either moving forward, say the Bushies, or you're slipping backward. Slip-sliding or not, the Bush administration plans major moves in Asia. The aim is to shift U.S. troops now in that region to different stations in Asia. "There is not going to be a place in the world," U.S. defense official Douglas Feith told the Los Angeles Times, in its exclusive report Thursday (May 29) on the massivere deployment scheme, "where it's going to be the same as it used to be." That will be exceptionally true for Asia.

The Bush administration lately has been according extraordinary attention to that half of the world. And its new plans have enormous implications for American soldiers and military bases in the United States as well as Europe. As matters now stand, the bulk of the nearly 100,000 U.S. troops and support crews in Asia are hunkered down in Japan and South Korea. The plan is not yet a detailed operational blueprint, but its direction is clear. If all goes well, fewer U.S. soldiers will need to be stationed in Asia, and more of those remaining will be placed in less risky settings -- both for our soldiers and for Asian citizenry.

Troops will be dispersed to potential trouble spots, especially in Southeast Asia, and to some extent moved out of places that have been unhappy to have them. That would include the bitter island of Okinawa and the riled-up Seoul metropolis. In both locales, the plantation presence of the large U.S.base angers the local citizenry more than it makes them feel secure.

The Pentagon is convinced it can move some of our troops out of those places entirely, without inviting North Korea or any other country to try something foolish.

But where will the troops go?

Some will go home. Others will sail to Singapore, which years ago was planning a helicopter base and enlarged port for visiting U.S. ships. Other U.S. soldiers will ship further to Australia, where the government of John Howard will greet them with open arms. A deployment in Malaysia is even in the plans. This is hard to fathom, but if it does take place, it will greatly muddle fiery Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's image of anti-Americanism!

These redeployments are not simply random thoughts out of some Shake-Well Theory of Management (i.e., change simply for change's sake). They are based on significant assumptions. One is that China is not an immediate military threat (except to Taiwan, which Beijing considers a runaway province). Indeed, China's No. 1 threat is to itself, with its gargantuan needs for ever-forward economic movement. With the SARS and other crises, it has no time for adventures elsewhere.

Another assumption is South Korea. While no one knows what the North Koreans may do, the South Korean armed forces are no elite Republican Guard paper tigers a la Iraq but are tough and ready -- and would have the assistance of U.S. forces still stationed in the far south to repel aggression. So a thinning of U.S. troops, carefully and slowly carried out, will be low risk unless Pyongyang misinterprets it as a withdrawal of commitment.

A third assumption is that Japan will evolve into a more robust military power and will thus need less U.S. hand-holding as time goes on. Last week, Bush spent an extraordinary two hours alone (save translator) with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi by the family pool in Crawford, Texas. They weren't chatting about the best sushi bars in Shinjuku.

The Bushies' feathers seem quite unruffled by a militarily more self-reliant Japan, in contrast to almost everyone else in Asia. Far more people there recall Japanese military aggression and occupation than they do any Chinese offense. As Washington cuts Japan more military slack, red flags will go up, rightly or wrongly, all over Asia.

The boys in Beijing may go slightly nuts with paranoia. Their memories of the wartime atrocities committed by the Japanese are quite vivid, even putting to the pale the prior Chinese government's atrocities against its own people.

Even so, the Bush administration is well advised to handle the Japanese portion of the Great Asian Redeployment with kid gloves. Go slow! It's not a good idea to scare people when prudent progress can prevent panic.

The new Chinese government of Hu Jintao is known to be conducting a massive review of its bilateral policy toward the United States. Under Jiang Zemin that policy was accommodating, perhaps, as critics inside China complain, to a fault. China is likely to ratchet up new hostility toward America if Beijing thinks Japan is being let out of the box. No one needs that.

The above weekly column has just appeared in the Honolulu Advertiser, The South China Morning Post and The Straits Times of Singapore. The author, Tom Plate, is a regular columnist at these three papers. The column also appears in other world newspapers, including The San Francisco Chronicle, The Seattle Times, The Japan Times and The Korea Times. Email him at: tplate@ucla.edu.

For publication and reprint rights, contact the author directly or John Simpson (john.simpson@latsi.com) of the Los Angeles Times Syndicate International.

Previous Columns:

A Mega-Job for a Mega-Lady (May 26, 2003)

Is Japan Back, at Least in the Eyes of Texas? (May 19, 2003)

The Importance of Being Sane (May 12, 2003)

The Singapore Sling of a Precedent-Setting Deal (May 7, 2003)

When Politics Can Be Injurious to People's Health (May 5, 2003)

© 2003 Asia Pacific Media Network